Comprehensive assessment of the development potential of plant production in the municipal district
Abstract
The work examines a comprehensive assessment of the variability of natural-climatic and production-economic characteristics to determine the potential for the development of crop production in a municipal district. This approach allows optimizing the resources of agricultural producers, improving forecasts, plans and increasing labor productivity. The goal of the work is to analyze the variability of climatic factors and production-economic characteristics to assess the potential for agricultural development in the municipal district. The scientific novelty of the study is associated with a comprehensive assessment of climatic and production-economic characteristics using mathematical modeling for forecasting and planning production for a long-term perspective, taking into account various conditions of the agricultural producer's activities. To achieve this goal, long-term changes in precipitation and temperatures for each month of the growing season were analyzed. The influence of these factors on crop yields was determined and the most significant of them were identified. Multi-level trends were highlighted in the series of bioproductivity of grain crops, vegetables and potatoes. Crop yield losses were determined. Based on a parametric programming problem with probabilistic characteristics, plans for obtaining volumes of the main types of agricultural products until 2026 were built. At the same time, predictive and stochastic values of crop yields were previously determined. Solutions to the extreme problem were obtained for average, favorable and unfavorable conditions of activity of agricultural producers. The methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the potential for agricultural development is applicable to enterprises, municipal and agricultural landscape areas. In the article, the methodology was tested for the Irkutsk district.
Sponsorship information. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-21-00502.
EDN: DYMPRI
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References
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Bakharev, V. V., Mityashin, G. Yu., Stelmashonok, E. V. et al. (2023). Trends of evolution of food security: digital transformation, social entrepreneurship and human dignity. Siberian Journal of Life Sciences and Agriculture, 15(2), 363-391. https://doi.org/10.12731/2658-6649-2023-15-2-363-391 EDN: https://elibrary.ru/kbwsda
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